Working Papers (Economics)
The Long-Run Effect of Public Libraries on Children: Evidence from the Early 1900s
(PDF)
Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments
(PDF)
with Aastha Rajan
The Democratization of Opportunity: The Effects of the U.S. High School Movement
(email for
draft)
with Ali Doxey Koetting, Peter Nencka
Cheaper by the Dozen: Parental Time Use and Returns to Scale in Raising Children
(PDF)
with Todd R. Jones, Valerie Michelman
Under Review (Economics)
Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation
(PDF)
with Yu-Ting Chiang
Ending Early Grade Suspensions
(PDF)
with Sarah Komisarow
Early Predictors of Racial Disparities in Criminal Justice Involvement
(PDF)
with Andrew Jordan, Derek Neal
Religion as Social Insurance: Evidence from the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927
(PDF)
with Philipp Ager, Casper Worm Hansen, and Lars Lonstrup
Antitrust Enforcement Increases Economic Activity
(PDF)
Revise and Resubmit, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Schools and Crime
(PDF)
Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Publications (Economics)
The Black-White Lifetime Earnings Gap
(PDF)
with Anthony Wray
Accepted, Explorations in Economic History
Hetereogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions
(PDF)
with Andrew Jordan, Derek Neal
Accepted, Journal of Labor Economics
The Returns to Public Library Investment
(PDF)
Accepted, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior
(PDF)
Accepted, Review of Economics and Statistics
School Closures During the 1918 Flu Pandemic
(PDF)
Accepted, Review of Economics and Statistics
The Census Place Project: A Method for Geolocating Unstructured Place Names
(PDF)
Accepted, Explorations in Economic History
Working Papers (Forecasting)
Improving Low-Probability Judgments
(PDF)
with Pavel Atanasov, Coralie Consigny, Philipp Schoenegger, David V. Budescu, and Philip E. Tetlock
The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
(PDF)
with Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, Nikolay Petrov, Jessica Helmer, Sivan Livnat, Amory Bennett, Page Hedley, and Phil Tetlock
The Psychometric Properties of Probability and Quantile Forecasts
(PDF)
with Sophie Ma Zhu, David Budescu, Nikolay Petrov, and Mark Himmelstein
Identifying Good Forecasters via Adaptive Cognitive Tests
(PDF)
with Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, Sophie Ma Zhu, Philip E. Tetlock, and Mark Himmelstein
Under Review (Forecasting)
Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade
(PDF)
Revise and Resubmit, International Journal of Central Banking
Tell Me Why: Incentivizing Explanations
(PDF)
with Siddarth Srinivasan, Ezra Karger, Michiel Bakker, Yiling Chen
Belief Updating in AI-Risk Debates: Exploring the Limits of Adversarial Collaboration
(PDF)
with Josh Rosenberg, Zachary Jacobs, Molly Hickman, Avital Morris, Harrison Durland, Otto Kuusela, Philip E. Tetlock
Self-Resolving Prediction Markets for Unverifiable Outcomes
(PDF)
with Siddarth Srinivasan, Yiling Chen
Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discovery of Skilled Forecasters
(PDF)
with Pavel D. Atanasov, Philip E. Tetlock
Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions
(PDF)
Large Language Models Are More Persuasive Than Incentivized Human Persuaders
(PDF)
with Philipp Schoenegger, Francesco Salvi, Jiacheng Liu, Xiaoli Nan, Ramit Debnath, Barbara Fasolo, Evelina Leivada, Gabriel Recchia, Fritz Günther, Ali Zarifhonarvar, Joe Kwon, Zahoor Ul Islam, Marco Dehnert, Daryl Y. H. Lee, Madeline G. Reinecke, David G. Kamper, Mert Kobaş, Adam Sandford, Jonas Kgomo, Luke Hewitt, Shreya Kapoor, Kerem Oktar, Eyup Engin Kucuk, Bo Feng, Cameron R.
Jones, Izzy Gainsburg, Sebastian Olschewski, Nora Heinzelmann, Francisco Cruz, Ben M. Tappin, Tao Ma, Peter S. Park, Rayan Onyonka, Arthur Hjorth, Peter Slattery, Qingcheng Zeng, Lennart Finke, Igor Grossmann, Alessandro Salatiello
Publications (Forecasting)
Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Existential Risk: Initial Results from a Hybrid Persuasion Forecasting Tournament
(PDF)
with Josh Rosenberg, Zachary Jacobs, Molly Hickman, Philip E. Tetlock
Accepted, International Journal of Forecasting
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
(PDF)
with Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han, Zachary Jacobs, Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Philip E. Tetlock
Accepted, ICLR
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy
(PDF)
with Philipp Schoenegger, Peter S. Park, and Philip E. Tetlock
Accepted, ACM TiiS
Publications (Education)
State and Local Efforts To Investigate the Validity and Reliability of Scores From Teacher Evaluation Systems
(PDF)
Teachers College Record, 2014, 116(1): 1-28
Policy Publications
Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
(PDF)
with Bridget Williams, Ezra Karger, Andreas Persbo, Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Karim Kamel, Victoria Schmidt, Otto Kuusela, Zach Jacobs, and Philip E. Tetlock
Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics: AI Risk Case Study
(PDF)
with Tegan McCaslin, Josh Rosenberg, Avital Morris, Molly Hickman, Otto Kuusela, Sam Glover, Zach Jacobs, and Phil Tetlock
Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration
(PDF)
with Josh Rosenberg, Avital Morris, Molly Hickman, Rose Hadshar, Zachary Jacobs, Philip Tetlock
Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament
(PDF)
with Josh Rosenberg, Zachary Jacobs, Molly Hickman, Rose Hadshar, Kayla Gamin, Taylor Smith, Bridget Williams, Tegan McCaslin, Stephen Thomas, Philip E. Tetlock
Tracking Holiday Spending with CARTS 2.2 and a New Dashboard
(PDF)
with Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Katherine Jolley
What’s New in CARTS 2.1? Updates to Our Index Tracking National Retail Sales
(PDF)
with Scott A. Brave, Lucas Cain, Ross Cole
Searching for “Inflation Canaries” in Household Surveys
(PDF)
with Scott A. Brave, Ben Henken, Bart Hobijn, Anna L. Paulson, Jim Royal
Treasury Debt and Inflation Tax
(PDF)
with Yu-Ting Chiang, Jesse LaBelle
Why Are Illiquid Households Affected More by Inflation?
(PDF)
with Yu-Ting Chiang, Mick Dueholm
How Much Can Households Gain and Lose with Unexpected Inflation?
(PDF)
with Yu-Ting Chiang, Mick Dueholm
What Was in Your Holiday CARTS? Resuming Our Index Tracking National Retail Spending
(PDF)
with Scott A. Brave
Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies
(PDF)
with Pavel Atanasov, Philip E. Tetlock
If You Build a Library, Children Will Come—and Learn More, Too
(PDF)
Introducing CARTS: A New Index Tracking National Retail Spending
(PDF)
with Scott A. Brave, Ross Cole, Michael Fogarty, Ezra Karger, Liam Puknys
Classifying Industries into Tradable/Nontradable via Geographic Radius Served
(PDF)
with Simcha Barkai
Measuring the Relationship between Business Reopenings, Covid-19, and Consumer Behavior
(PDF)
Chicago Fed Letter, August 2020
Resting
Patent Citations and Stock Performance: Constructing a Dynamic Industry Classification
(PDF)
with Sebastien Gay